February 14, 2008
Growing Pains Coming to Lincoln County?

Photo by Dave Maxwell County Extension Agent Holly Gatzke

By Dave Maxwell, Staff Writer

Planned growth in Lincoln County over the next 10 years, upwards of 2400 percent, will be unprecedented in the nation’s history.

County Cooperative Extension Agent Holly Gatzke told the Lincoln County Commissioners February 5 that the County is facing a greater planning challenge than any non-metro county has ever faced, anytime, anywhere.

In 2006, Lincoln County Commission Chairwoman Ronda Hornbeck, County Building Director Ken Dixon and County Planning Director Clint Wertz asked the Cooperative Extension Department at the University of Nevada-Reno for help in looking ahead to its unusual planning challenge because of the developments at Coyote Springs and Toquop. While part of Coyote Springs is in Clark County, most of it is in Lincoln County.

She said experts at UNR, have usually looked at Lincoln County as being more of a “have not” county; meaning small population, low level of income, a few stores, simple lifestyle, small infrastructure, and small staffs to deal with those concerns, But over the next 10-15 years, it will soon be turning into a place of “city size.” Growth is not going to come slowly over a period of 50-75 years, “This is going to come much faster, maybe 15-20 years,” she said.

“What needs to be done now to plan for this?” she asked. “There just is no precedent out there. No examples in the nation of something like this happening,…of what to do and what not to do on these types of growth. No other county in the nation, has grown by that size of population percentage wise, so there are no other samples that can be pulled down,” Mrs. Gatzke said. Samples of growth that have been large, although nothing like what Lincoln County is facing, are being studied by experts at UNR. “But that is very difficult,” she said. “It’s very different expanding a city that’s growing fast versus, basically, a city in the middle of nowhere. The infrastructure needs, and the cost for building that, are quite different. That’s what makes it so unusual,” she said.

A report by Maureen Kilkenny and Tom Harris with the Department of Resource Economics, and Buddy Borden, Community Economics Development Specialist, all at UNR, give rough estimates of what needs Lincoln County will be facing, possibly as early as 2020.

• The county will grow from 4,000 residents to 100,000 plus.
• Growth rate estimated to be 2400 percent, 25 times present size.

“There is no known historical precedent for that rate of growth in any county in the U.S. during past decades, the report noted. “In particular, no county in the whole U.S., metro or non-metro, grew by more than 123 percent between 1990-2000 (Forsyth County, Georgia, 123.2 percent).”

Ms. Kilkenny wrote that overlaid on a chart of actual growth rate of all non-metro U.S. counties up to the year 2000, Lincoln County’s rough estimated future growth is “off the map.”

“The challenge is unprecedented. No non-metro county planners have ever been confronted with a planning challenge of this magnitude,” the UNR report noted. Of counties that did grow by at least 100,000 population, (like Clark County, Nevada) between 1990-2000, each was already in large metropolitan areas. “The county planning structure and staffing was already in place. Lincoln County does not have enough staff in place now. It needs to be able to employ more planners immediately,” the report recommended.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report for 2000, showed that three counties in Nevada did grow by more than 50 percent between 1990-2000: Nye, (82.7) Lyon (72.5) and Pershing (54.4). However, that pales to Lincoln County’s estimated 2400 percent growth by 2020.

In addition, U.S. Census figures predict that about 20 percent of the population will be between ages 4-19 in the year 2015. Lincoln County’s estimated school-age population will be about 20,000. Based on an average of 800 students per school, Lincoln County will need about 25 schools by that time.

Mrs. Gatzke said even more growth in Lincoln County, apart from Coyote Springs and Toquop, could be expected with the 90,000 acres of land to be released by the Bureau of Land Management over the next few years in each of the communities that already exist in the county.

She also noted that “Studies done recently have shown that a substantial number of “Baby Boomers,” now joining the ranks of retirees, tend to want to get away from the cities and into rural areas, where the cost of living is lower and the pace of life is slower. They want to find the quiet, peaceful life style and going back to nature,” she said.

Figures from the U.S. Census Bureau show that 28 percent of the U.S. population is comprised of “Baby Boomers,” those born between 1946 and 1964. The first wave is now reaching age 62.

Gatzke said, “A substantial proportion of those intend to retire in a rural area, and that growth is expected to push a lot of the developments in areas like Lincoln County.”

“This means a lot of planning for Lincoln County,” she said. “Our road department, financial department, planning and building departments, sewer and water facilities, city and municipal government, emergency services are, at present, small scale; staffed by only a handful of employees in a very simple manner. That can’t carry on in a county that is to have 100,000 people,” Gatzke said. “The question is, how do you train and figure out how to scale the county staffing and expertise for the level of services needed when there are no models from anywhere in the U.S. to provide guidance?”

Simply stated, the questions facing the County Commissioners are likely to be Who, What, Where, When and How? Answers to questions such as infrastructure, staffing, approaches to new developments, etc., at the level the county will be facing are not available. “Such as this simply has not happened before,” Mrs. Gatzke said. Thus, Lincoln County will be learning by doing, making the county a case study of what might be, or might not be, the best way to plan for and integrate such a huge growth rate. Lincoln County will be keenly and closely watched.